Current annual improvements in mortality rates vary considerably by age and sex. The mortality projections assume that for most ages these improvements will gradually converge to common 'target rates' of improvement, at each age and for both sexes, by the year 2031, and continue to improve at that constant rate thereafter. However, these mortality projections also assume that those born in the years 1923 to 1940 (cohorts which have consistently experienced relatively high rates of mortality improvement over the last 25 years) will continue to experience higher rates of mortality improvement than the rest of the population.
The target rate assumptions are as follows:
High variant: 2 per cent annual improvement at 2031, thereafter annual improvement remaining at 2 per cent. For those born between 1923 and 1940 rates of annual improvement in and after 2031 will rise to a peak of 3.5 per cent a year for those born in 1931 and then decline back to 2 per cent a year for those born in 1941 or later.
Principal projection: 1 per cent annual improvement at 2031, thereafter annual improvement remaining at 1 per cent. For those born between 1923 and 1940 rates of annual improvement in and after 2031 will rise to a peak of 2.5 per cent a year for those born in 1931 and then decline back to 1 per cent a year for those born in 1941 or later.
Low variant: 0 per cent annual improvement at 2031, thereafter mortality rates remaining constant. For those born between 1923 and 1940 rates of annual improvement in and after 2031 will rise to a peak of 1.5 per cent a year for those born in 1931 and then decline back to 0 per cent a year for those born in 1941 or later.
No improvement: 0% annual improvement, so mortality rates remain constant throughout the projection period at the levels assumed for 2006-07.
These assumptions produce the following period expectations of life at birth at 2031:
|
|
Standard variants
|
Special case scenario
|
|
High variant |
Principal
projection |
Low
variant |
No
improvement |
|
MALES
|
| England |
84.9 |
83.0 |
81.0 |
77.6 |
| Wales |
84.4 |
82.4 |
80.5 |
77.3 |
| Scotland |
82.6 |
80.4 |
78.3 |
75.0 |
| Northern Ireland |
84.2 |
82.2 |
80.2 |
76.2 |
| United Kingdom |
84.7 |
82.7 |
80.7 |
77.3 |
|
FEMALES
|
| England |
87.6 |
86.4 |
85.1 |
81.9 |
| Wales |
87.2 |
86.0 |
84.7 |
81.6 |
| Scotland |
86.2 |
84.8 |
83.5 |
79.8 |
| Northern Ireland |
87.3 |
86.1 |
84.8 |
81.2 |
| United Kingdom |
87.5 |
86.2 |
84.9 |
81.7 |
|
