For net migration, an assumed marital status distribution has been derived from the distributions used by ONS in the preparation of their mid-year population estimates. However, the distribution has been adjusted so that the net number of married males entering the country equals the number of married females (see consistency constraints).

These assumptions are also consistent with the net migration assumptions by age and sex from the 2003-based national projections. The national projections assume total net inward migration to England & Wales of 118,000 persons in 2003-04, 123,000 in 2004-05, 127,500 in 2005-06 and 132,000 persons for 2006-07 and each year thereafter. Migration is highly concentrated at young ages and so around 75 per cent of net inward migration is assumed to be of never-married persons.

Click here for a summary table showing the assumed net migration distribution by age, sex and legal marital status for 2006-07 onwards. (Microsoft Excel Document (17kb).You will need Microsoft Excel in order to view this document. If you do not have this, please click here to go to the Microsoft Download Center from where you can download a copy of the Microsoft Excel Viewer.)

Variant marital status projections

Variant marital status projections have also been carried out based on alternative assumptions about the future levels of marriage and divorce. They make the same assumptions about future net migration as the principal marital status projections.