Principal projections
Click here
for a graph showing actual and projected numbers of marriages
and divorces.
Under these projection assumptions, the annual number of
marriages would remain fairly stable at just over 250 thousand
a year over the next ten years or so, before rising slightly
to a peak of around 280,000 a year in the early 2020s. The
annual number of divorces is projected to fall gradually
from just over 150 thousand per year at present to around
125 thousand in 2011 and just over 100 thousand by 2031.
It might seem surprising that marriages should rise (albeit
slightly) and divorces fall at a time when the married population
is declining. But, of course, divorce is not the only way
marriages end. Indeed, the majority of marriages still end
through the death of one partner. Together, marriages ending
(whether through divorce or death) currently exceed, and
are projected to continue to exceed, the number of new marriages.
Hence, the married population has been, and is projected
to continue, falling.
Arithmetically, the reason for the projected trends in
marriage and divorce numbers lie largely in the projected
changes in the size and age structure of the married and
never-married populations. For example, the annual number
of divorces is projected to fall quite substantially even
though a slight continuing increase is assumed in divorce
rates. The explanation is that the size of the
married population (i.e. those at risk of divorce) is projected
to fall significantly, especially at younger ages where
divorce rates are highest. This is, in turn, a consequence
of the recent rapid falls in first marriage rates at younger
ages.
Variant projections
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for a summary table showing the projected annual numbers
of marriages and divorces occurring under the high and low
marriage, and the high and low divorce, variant projections.
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